IRAN FOR GROWN-UPS – AT 9:38 A.M. ET:   A new report presented to Congress presents a stark, disturbing picture of where Iran actually is with its advanced defense technology.  Tehran out-negotiated us with the interim nuclear deal, and is backing its negotiating skills with real firepower.  It is clearly seeking to become the dominant nation in the region, as we sleep.  From The Politico:

Iran’s ability to make missiles loaded with nuclear warheads now rests primarily on the “political will” of its leaders, rather than any technical constraints, according to an annual U.S. intelligence assessment presented on Capitol Hill Wednesday.

“Tehran has made technical progress in a number of areas — including uranium enrichment, nuclear reactors, and ballistic missiles — from which it could draw if it decided to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons,” Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in written testimony submitted as he appeared before the Senate Intelligence Committee. “These technical advancements strengthen our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons. This makes the central issue its political will to do so.”

On that point, the U.S. Worldwide Threat Assessment suggests a lack of consensus at high levels of the Iranian government and notes that the interim agreement Iran reached to halt and roll back aspects of the program appears to be the product of uncertainty about whether the effort is worth the severe economic price the country has paid in economic sanctions, set to be eased somewhat under the six-month deal.

“Iran’s overarching strategic goals of enhancing its security, prestige, and regional influence have led it to pursue capabilities to meet its civilian goals and give it the ability to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons, if it chooses to do so,” the assessment says. “We judge that Iran is trying to balance conflicting objectives. It wants to improve its nuclear and missile capabilities while avoiding severe repercussions — such as a military strike or regime-threatening sanctions. We do not know if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”

COMMENT:  The fact that they can is the key.  It doesn't take long to bring a nuclear weapon online if the skill exists.  Our first test of a nuclear device occurred in the New Mexico desert on July 16, 1945.  The first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6th, barely three weeks later. 

Having the technology itself gives Iran substantial prestige and deterrent power.  If our agreements allow the Iranians to have and develop this technology, while easing sanctions, Tehran can have its cake and eat it, too. 

And please note that we do not know everything that goes on in Iran.  There may well be secret bases and underground manufacturing.

January 30, 2014